Vuelta 2024: GC Favourites

[Underneath text was written before the start of La Vuelta and has not been updated]

One could argue that the GC battle will boil down to the stages 1, 4, 13, 15, 16, 19, 20, and 21. The 1st and 21st are (flat) ITTs, all the others are mountainous stages with trying finales.

Red jersey days
After the ITT of day one – which is too short to have a real impact, though it will create time gaps – we’ll get a first glimpse of the on form GC riders in stage 4. The course is perfect for a huge battle for red, but since we are in the first phase of the three-week race, the big guns are likely to keep their powder dry. On the other hand, chances are that it will become clear who has to re-evaluate his ambitions in this Vuelta.

The GC battle is expected to intensify in the second half of the second week. Stage 13 features three mid-race ascents before finishing on the relentless Puerto de Ancares. The final climb is 7.5 kilometres long with an average gradient of 9.3%, ramping up to solid double digits in the final kilometres. Losing contact halfway up the Ancares could cost you minutes.

Insane gradients continue to dominate the finales of the stages in which the red jersey will be at stake. Stage 15 finishes at the Cuitu Negru, an 18.9 kilometres climb at 7.4%. The gradients fluctuate significantly, although the first part is relatively easy. However, when push comes to shove, the last 3 kilometres rise at over 13% to the line.

Following the second rest day, La Vuelta serves up more of the same. On what is arguably the most iconic stage, the riders are two conquer two irregular colussus before reaching the base of the climb to the Lagos de Covadonga. The 12.5 kilometres ascent averages 6.9%, but don’t be fooled by that statistic. The first 7 kilometres are nearly at 10%, and then the climb turns into a roller coaster, with short descents playing leapfrog with ramps of up to 16%. In short, anyone who isn’t on top form on the day of ‘Los Lagos’ might as well forget their red jersey ambitions.

Climax
Let’s hope the GC riders are still close together in the last three days, because that would set us up for a thrilling final weekend. If so, stage 19 would be a gentle way to prepare us for an epic climax. The route of stage 19 is nothing special, but the final climb is quite the opposite. The Alto de Moncalvillo is a 8.6 kilometres drag at 8.9%, with solely double digits in the second half.

In terms of elevation gain, stage 20 is the hardest of the entire Vuelta. The riders conquer more than 5,000 metres of climbing over a 172 kilometres course, while the final drag up the Picón Blanco throws in 7.9 kilometres at 9.1%. It will come as no suprise that large parts of the climb are at double digits, with the steepest section reaching 18%.

While the mountain stages are extreme in their steep gradients, the ITTs are extreme in their flatness. This is the case on day one and also in the closing ITT. The elevation gain on the 24.6 kilometres course does not exceed 200 metres.

Extra edge
Jumbo-Visma (now Visma | Lease a Bike) dominated the 2023 Grand Tour season, culminating in a clean swap in the Vuelta – 1 Kuss, 2 Vingegaard, 3 Roglic.

This year’s Vuelta should offer more excitement than last year’s, and also more excitement than we saw in the recent editions of the Giro d’Italia and the Tour de France. There is no clear top favourite in Spain, although three-time winner Roglic does have an edge. What’s extra spicy is that he left Jumbo-Visma for Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe because of last year’s Vuelta, where he had to ride in support of Kuss.

Alongside Adam Yates, Roglic is the only rider who has won a stage race this year. The Slovenian took top honours at the Critérium du Dauphiné in June, while Yates won the Tour de Suisse.

Carapaz crashed out of the Tour de Suisse – a race he won in 2021 -, which caused him to start with an injury in the Tour de France. Still he managed to wear the yellow jersey for a day, and he went home with the polka dot jersey and a stage win under his belt.

Carapaz is one of four Vuelta participants who won a Grand Tour; he triumphed in the Giro in 2019. Geoghegan Hart won the Giro (2020), while Roglic tops the list with three Vuelta victories (2019, 2020, 2021) and one Giro win (2023). Title defender Kuss is, of course, the last in this quartet of riders who have conquered a Grand Tour.

Favourites 2024 Vuelta a España

***** Primoz Roglic, Richard Carapaz, Adam Yates
**** Mikel Landa, Sepp Kuss, João Almeida, Thymen Arensman
*** Daniel Felipe Martínez, Carlos Rodriguez, Enric Mas, Aleksandr Vlasov
** Ben O’Connor, Mattias Skjelmose, Jay Vine, Cian Uijtdebroeks, Felix Gall
* Giulio Ciccone, Tao Geoghegan Hart, David Gaudu, Einer Rubio, Lorenzo Fortunato