To begin with, he suffered a heavy crash in the finale of Nokere Koerse last Wednesday, and it remains to be seen how he will recover from that. Additionally, statistically speaking, the chances are slim. The last rider to win Milan-San Remo two years in a row was Erik Zabel. Both in 2000 and in 2001, he triumphed in a bunch sprint.
Sprint victories from the peloton have become rare in Milan-San Remo. In 2016, Arnaud Démare was the last sprinter to prevail on the Via Roma in a bunch sprint. The Frenchman followed in the footsteps of John Degenkolb, who in turn had succeeded Alexander Kristoff.
In the past seven editions, the peloton has been shattered on the Poggio. Last year, Tadej Pogacar launched multiple attacks on the ascent but couldn’t break away completely. He reached the summit alongside Mathieu van der Poel, with a group of ten riders, including Jasper Philipsen, close behind. They regrouped on the descent, after which Van der Poel sacrificed his chances, guiding his teammate to victory.
The two editions prior were won solo by Van der Poel and Matej Mohoric, both with daring descents of the Poggio.
For Pogacar, Milan-San Remo is becoming somewhat of an obsession. Since his debut in 2020, the three-time Tour de France winner has contested La Primavera five times. He’s consistently attempted to make a difference with attacks on the Poggio, though without significant success. Perhaps it’s time to try on the Cipressa climb, though that might be too far out?
Should the race come down to a bunch sprint on the Via Roma, the likes of Olav Kooij, Jonathan Milan, and Jasper Philipsen are the most likely candidates for the win. Last week, Kooij and Milan showcased excellent form in Tirreno-Adriatico; Kooij took one and Milan two stages in Italy. Filippo Ganna also impressed, winning the time trial and securing third place in the overall standings. Two years ago, he finished third in Milan-San Remo.
Active riders who have tasted victory in La Primavera include Alexander Kristoff (2014), John Degenkolb (2015), Arnaud Démare (2016), Michał Kwiatkowski (2017), Julian Alaphilippe (2019), Wout van Aert (2020), Jasper Stuyven (2021), Matej Mohorič (2022), Mathieu van der Poel (2023), and Jasper Philipsen (2024). Four of them are absent this year – Kristoff, Démare, Kwiatkowski, and Van Aert.
Favourites 2025 Milan – San Remo
***** Mathieu van der Poel, Tadej Pogacar
**** Mads Pedersen, Filippo Ganna, Tom Pidcock
*** Olav Kooij, Jonathan Milan, Michael Matthews
** Maxim Van Gils, Magnus Cort, Matej Mohoric, Alberto Bettiol
* Biniam Girmay, Kaden Groves, Danny van Poppel, Laurence Pithie
Cracking race preview of Milan-San Remo. Enjoyed the breakdown of the favourites—top-notch analysis. I see you write previews for the live tracker, Tour Tracker, as well. Great to see your work shared there. Cheers!