Yet, a fierce battle between Primož Roglič and Juan Ayuso seems the most likely scenario. We had a first taste of it at the Volta a Catalunya – and what an appetiser it was! Neither rider gave an inch in a duel that began on day one and culminated on the final stage, when the Slovenian turned the race in his favour with a 20-kilometre solo attack.
The Volta a Catalunya was one of the most compelling stage races of the season – let’s hope for more of the same in Italy!
Roglic versus Ayuso – a clash between riders of a similar mould. Both are strong all-rounders – excellent time triallists, outstanding climbers, and each with a solid sprint to boot. In fact, they faced off in two mano-a-mano sprints in Catalonia, with one win apiece. What makes it even more intriguing is that they’re also leading the strongest teams on paper. Roglic is backed by Jai Hindley and Daniel Felipe Martínez – the Colombian who helped Bernal to Giro victory in 2021 – while Ayuso can count on the support of Adam Yates, Jay Vine and Isaac del Toro. Yates in particular has the pedigree to fight for overall victory himself – and the same goes for Hindley, who, after all, won the Giro in 2022.
A stacked field
If we’re honest, last year’s Giro was something of a damp squib. With Tadej Pogacar delivering a three-week one-man show – topping it off with six stage wins, the overall title and the KOM jersey – there was next to no suspense. His main rivals – Thymen Arensman, Antonio Tiberi, Romain Bardet, Ben O’Connor, Daniel Felipe Martínez and Geraint Thomas – never were in contention. Yates, Thomas and Martínez did make the podium, but both finished 10 minutes down on the pink emperor.
Aside from O’Connor and Thomas, all of those riders are back this year. And the field is further bolstered by the likes of Derek Gee, Richard Carapaz, Simon Yates, Mikel Landa, Giulio Ciccone, Egan Bernal, David Gaudu and Wilco Kelderman. Then, of course, there’s Hindley, Adam Yates, Vine and Del Toro – although they’ll mostly be riding in support of their team leaders.
All in all, the field is far deeper than it was last year. And with the two pre-race standouts clearly a level below Pogacar, there’s every reason to expect a much more compelling battle this time around.
Warm-up races
Michael Storer and Thymen Arensman showed fine form in the build-up to the Grande Partenza with impressive performances in the Tour of the Alps. The Australian in particular was outstanding on the climbs, ultimately taking the overall victory. The Dutchman impressed with a solo stage win after an 80-kilometre breakaway and finished second overall. Derek Gee completed the podium, though without making much of an impression. Other Giro riders in that race included Ciccone (fourth), Hindley (eighth), and Bardet (tenth).
So Storer arrives at the Giro in top form, but whether he can truly contend for a podium place remains to be seen. On paper, his team looks vulnerable, and if last year’s Giro time trials are any indication, he stands to lose significant time against the clock.
Looking back to March, several Giro contenders fine-tuned their form at the Tirreno-Adriatico. Ayuso claimed a convincing overall win, with Tiberi (third), Gee (fourth), Hindley (fifth), Landa (seventh), Ciccone (thirteenth), Simon Yates (fourteenth), Adam Yates (sixteenth), Carapaz (eighteenth), and Del Toro (nineteenth) all featuring in the Race of the Two Seas.
Arensman was the only potential Giro podium finisher who opted for Paris–Nice in March. He performed admirably, finishing third overall behind Matteo Jorgenson and Florian Lipowitz.
As noted at the start, the Volta a Catalunya was arguably the most telling Giro warm-up this year. Not only Roglic (first) and Ayuso (second) were strong, but Landa (fourth) and Bernal (seventh) also showed promising form. For Simon Yates (ninth) and Carapaz (tenth), the race suggested there was still work to be done.
With Roglic, Bernal, Carapaz, Hindley, and Quintana on the start list, five former winners line up for this year’s Giro.
Favourites 2025 Giro d’Italia
***** Juan Ayuso, Primoz Roglic
**** Adam Yates, Derek Gee, Richard Carapaz
*** Thymen Arensman, Antonio Tiberi, Simon Yates
** Michael Storer, Mikel Landa, Giulio Ciccone, Egan Bernal, Jai Hindley
* Jay Vine, Isaac del Toro, David Gaudu, Romain Bardet, Daniel Felipe Martínez