Critérium du Dauphiné 2024: GC Favourites

[The text below was written before the start of the Dauphiné and has not been updated]

Riding for Team Sky and winning the Critérium du Dauphiné used to be solid indicators of your chances to win the Tour de France the following month. Bradley Wiggins (2012), Chris Froome (2013, 2015, 2016), and Geraint Thomas (2018) all were victorious in the Dauphiné before racing to eternal glory in La Grande Boucle.

Since the demise of Team Sky, things changed for four years. Jakob Fuglsang (2019), Daniel Felipe Martínez (2020), Richie Porte (2021), and Primoz Roglic (2023) bucked the trend, but Jonas Vingegaard bucked it back last year. The Dane dominated the Critérium du Dauphiné before going on to do the same in the Tour de France.

That said, Jonas Vingegaard was also the best rider in the 2022 Dauphiné. Yes, he finished second, but he held back on the final climb to guide his then-leader Roglič to the overall victory. Roglič crashed out of the Tour the following month, and Vingegaard filled his shoes excellently to win the biggest race on the planet for the first time in his career.

Concerning the 2024 Critérium du Dauphiné, the first time gaps are expected to open up in the ITT on the fourth day of action, while the GC action is expected to intensify significantly during the high-altitude finishes of the final weekend.

The run-up to Friday’s race is relatively easy, but the climb to the finish is a beast. The route climbs over 11.1 kilometres at an average gradient of 8.1%, with numerous sections at double digits to intensify the challenge.

The stages on Saturday and Sunday are both arduous from start to finish. Saturday’s Queen Stage is particularly demanding, featuring 4,500 metres of climbing within a compact 155 kilometres route. After three intermediate climbs, the finishing ascent includes 10 kilometres of hardship at 9.3%.

Sunday’s race is slightly longer, and the elevation gain is slightly less, so overall, one could argue that it’s an easier test. Additionally, the finale is not as tough. The first 7 kilometres of the climb to the finish average a challenging gradient, but the last 2.4 kilometres are more of a false flat.

Big question marks hover over two riders who are expected to excel in the upcoming Tour de France. Both Primož Roglič and Remco Evenepoel are returning to racing in the Dauphiné after their horrific crashes in the Tour of the Basque Country. Only three participants of the Dauphiné have triumphed this season in a UCI World Tour stage race: Matteo Jorgenson won Paris-Nice, Ayuso took the Tour of the Basque Country, while Carlos Rodriguez came out on top in the Tour of Romandie.

Favourites Critérium du Dauphiné 2024

*** Primoz Roglic, Remco Evenepoel, Juan Ayuso
** Matteo Jorgenson, Mikel Landa, Carlos Rodriguez
* David Gaudu, Tao Geoghegan Hart, Jai Hindley, Aleksandr Vlasov